PerpRadar
as of 13:20 UTC

Predictions on-chain — HIP-4 outcome markets

Outcome markets on Hyperliquid, quoted as probabilities. PerpRadar records the venue's own mids every cycle and measures spread and fill cost by walking outcome books it records itself. Once an outcome settles, the venue serves no history — this recording is the archive. Gaps stay labeled, never guessed.

36Live outcome marketsi
4Multi-outcome questionsi
65Delisted on recordi
36Books recorded · live marketsi
Biggest 24h swing -6.9 pts Brazil 0.1% recorded · spread — Most contested 47.6% Exactly 3.8% 47.6% recorded · spread 5.2¢ Nearest expiry 07-07 06:00 UTC BTC · line $63,101 12.3% recorded · spread 1.9¢

Outcome markets

One panel per question or market family. Probability is the venue’s own recorded mid for the named side; Spread and Fill cost are measured by walking books PerpRadar records — the two outcome sides mirror each other exactly, so one recorded book prices both. Rows rank by recorded probability; the fill size you pick drives every panel.

Daily price lines

USDC settled line = venue-set level
MarketProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
BTC · line $63,101 new 12.3% new 1.9¢ Yes ≈$123.17 · No ≈$10.67
ETH · line $1,774.6 new 20.7% new 4.7¢ Yes ≈$298.14 · No ≈$67.28
SOL · line $80.401 new 30.8% new 4.4¢ Yes ≈$107.08 · No ≈$66.68
HYPE · line $70.698 new 21.0% new 6.0¢ Yes ≈$749.18 · No ≈$214.84

Head-to-head

USDC settled
MatchProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
World Cup Round of 16: USA vs Belgium USA 53.9% +3.9 pts 0.2¢ USA ≈$1.83 · Belgium ≈$3.76
World Cup Round of 16: Switzerland vs Colombia Switzerland 40.3% +1.6 pts 0.4¢ Switzerland ≈$8.56 · Colombia ≈$7.08
World Cup Round of 16: Argentina vs Egypt Argentina 85.5% +0.9 pts 0.6¢ Argentina ≈$5.11 · Egypt ≈$20.59
World Cup Round of 16: Portugal vs Spain Portugal 33.8% +0.6 pts 0.7¢ Portugal ≈$11.59 · Spain ≈$5.21
World Cup Quarterfinal: France vs Morocco new France 78.0% new 0.1¢ France ≈$5.36 · Morocco ≈$24.26

2026 World Cup Champion

15 outcomes USDC settled 34 settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
France 33.0% -2.3 pts 0.6¢ Yes ≈$11.83 · No ≈$4.28
Argentina 16.8% +0.1 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$12.79 · No ≈$2.6
England 13.1% +6.4 pts 1.6¢ Yes ≈$61.19 · No ≈$8.94
Spain 12.7% +0.2 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$4.62 · No ≈$0.69
Portugal 5.7% -0.2 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$32.96 · No ≈$2.04
Norway 5.0% +3.3 pts 0.8¢ Yes ≈$75.95 · No ≈$4.25
USA 3.2% +0.2 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$157.22 · No ≈$1.83
Colombia 3.2% +0.0 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$51 · No ≈$1.76
Morocco 2.8% +0.1 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$52.77 · No ≈$1.6
Belgium 1.3% -0.0 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$229.18 · No ≈$2.19

July Fed funds decision

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
No change 88.9% -2.6 pts 2.6¢ Yes ≈$70.65 · No ≈$513.46
Increase 13.8% +2.9 pts 15.4¢ Yes ≈$582.81 · No ≈$92.69
Decrease 5.0% +0.0 pts 8.0¢ Yes ≈$582.11 · No ≈$49.54
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

June CPI year-over-year

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
Exactly 3.8% 47.6% +4.1 pts 5.2¢ Yes ≈$468.22 · No ≈$398.07
Below 3.8% 26.2% +0.0 pts 29.6¢ Yes ≈$563.87 · No ≈$176.33
Above 3.8% 21.8% +0.0 pts 22.5¢ Yes ≈$731.08 · No ≈$130.06
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

BTC closing range

4 outcomes USDC settled daily · expires 2026-07-07 06:00 UTC
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
below $61,839 new 57.9% new 11.2¢ Yes ≈$92.09 · No ≈$111.1
$61,839 – $64,363 new 36.7% new 10.4¢ Yes ≈$143.91 · No ≈$127.82
above $64,363 new 2.3% new 2.4¢ Yes ≈$955.81 · No ≈$11.97
None of the listed new 50.0% new $1k — nothing walkable

Delisted — the recorded exit

When an outcome settles, the venue removes it from the catalog and serves no history for it. The last probability PerpRadar recorded before removal is the closest thing to the printed result — shown here verbatim, labeled by its recording time, never restated as an official settlement.

MarketLast recordedDelistedData
World Cup Round of 16: Mexico vs England Mexico 0.1% 2026-07-06 06:25 UTC delisted
BTC · line $62,731 99.1% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
ETH · line $1,766.3 43.0% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
SOL · line $80.457 81.0% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
HYPE · line $68.502 98.2% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
None of the listed 50.0% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
Recurring Named Outcome 7.0% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
Recurring Named Outcome 99.0% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
Recurring Named Outcome 9.1% 2026-07-06 05:57 UTC delisted
World Cup Round of 16: Brazil vs Norway Brazil 0.1% 2026-07-06 02:53 UTC delisted

PerpRadar has recorded this surface since 2026-07-03 10:48 UTC — probabilities every capture cycle, books on a rolling cadence. The venue serves no history once an outcome settles, so the archive above grows only by recording early.

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