PerpRadar
as of 01:37 UTC

Predictions on-chain — HIP-4 outcome markets

Outcome markets on Hyperliquid, quoted as probabilities. PerpRadar records the venue's own mids every cycle and measures spread and fill cost by walking outcome books it records itself. Once an outcome settles, the venue serves no history — this recording is the archive. Gaps stay labeled, never guessed.

160Live outcome marketsi
20Multi-outcome questionsi
1263Delisted on recordi
160Books recorded · live marketsi
Biggest 24h swing +41.3 pts template:sportsContestWinner 78.5% recorded · spread 2.9¢ Most contested 50.0% template:sportsContestWinner 50.0% recorded · spread 100.0¢ Nearest expiry 09-10 06:00 UTC BTC · line $78,905 3.2% recorded · spread 0.8¢

Outcome markets

One panel per question or market family. Probability is the venue’s own recorded mid for the named side; Spread and Fill cost are measured by walking books PerpRadar records — the two outcome sides mirror each other exactly, so one recorded book prices both. Rows rank by recorded probability; the fill size you pick drives every panel.

Daily price lines

USDC settled line = venue-set level
MarketProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
BTC · line $78,905 new 3.2% new 0.8¢ Yes ≈$446.36 · No ≈$4.35
ETH · line $2,496.4 new 2.0% new 4.0¢ Yes ≈$891.91 · No ≈$19.99
SOL · line $104.02 new 1.2% new 1.6¢ Yes ≈$944.83 · No ≈$10.11
HYPE · line $85.65 new 1.1% new 1.9¢ Yes ≈$986.92 · No ≈$9.51

Head-to-head

USDC settled
MatchProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:priceTouch template:Yes 34.5% +1.3 pts 0.01¢ template:Yes ≈$44.35 · template:No ≈$67.62
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 2.5% +0.6 pts 0.6¢ template:Yes ≈$205.23 · template:No ≈$3.32
template:priceTouch template:Yes 3.9% +0.4 pts 0.2¢ template:Yes fills ≈$939.04 · template:No ≈$5.49
template:priceTouch template:Yes 7.4% -0.9 pts 0.5¢ template:Yes ≈$650.18 · template:No ≈$2.55
template:priceTouch template:Yes 14.8% -2.5 pts 0.4¢ template:Yes ≈$444.4 · template:No ≈$2.52
template:priceTouch template:Yes 36.9% -4.9 pts 4.0¢ template:Yes ≈$125.01 · template:No ≈$33.21
template:priceTouch template:Yes 28.7% +2.0 pts 2.5¢ template:Yes ≈$151.9 · template:No ≈$28.6
template:priceTouch template:Yes 10.4% +0.4 pts 0.2¢ template:Yes fills ≈$790.3 · template:No ≈$2.33
template:priceTouch template:Yes 4.5% +0.3 pts 0.4¢ template:Yes fills ≈$551.65 · template:No ≈$4.49
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 87.0% +0.4 pts 1.0¢ template:Yes ≈$18.56 · template:No ≈$595.34

template:policyRateDecision

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:policyRateIncrease 52.5% -0.5 pts 0.00¢ Yes ≈$65.35 · No ≈$50.5
template:policyRateNoChange 46.7% +0.2 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$12.14 · No ≈$5.69
template:policyRateDecrease 0.6% +0.0 pts 0.5¢ Yes ≈$360.17 · No ≈$2.26
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsTournamentWinner

7 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 53.0% +1.3 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$11.5 · No ≈$10.14
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 27.2% +0.3 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$472.3 · No ≈$2.27
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 9.6% -1.2 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$797.89 · No ≈$2.04
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 5.5% +0.1 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$853.74 · No ≈$0.31
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 4.2% +0.2 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$913.79 · No ≈$2.08
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 0.3% +0.0 pts 0.5¢ Yes ≈$990.37 · No ≈$2.54
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsTournamentWinner

7 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 21.3% +0.1 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$218.69 · No ≈$2.33
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 15.4% -0.3 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$471.16 · No ≈$1.49
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 13.8% -3.7 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$579.65 · No ≈$1.4
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 12.1% -2.9 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$310.34 · No ≈$1.13
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 11.6% -1.4 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$637.86 · No ≈$0.71
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 8.6% -1.5 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$602.91 · No ≈$1.64
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsTournamentWinner

7 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 16.6% -0.0 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$588.3 · No ≈$1.22
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 9.0% +0.0 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$835.02 · No ≈$0.54
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 7.5% +1.9 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$882.62 · No ≈$0.95
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 7.0% +1.0 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$868.16 · No ≈$0.81
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 6.2% +0.7 pts 0.04¢ Yes ≈$881.44 · No ≈$0.22
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 4.4% +0.4 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$944.3 · No ≈$1.59
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsTournamentWinner

7 outcomes USDC settled 6 settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 47.9% +19.8 pts 14.1¢ Yes ≈$247.15 · No ≈$457.1
template:sportsTournamentParticipant new 45.5% new 91.0¢ Yes ≈$499.99 · No ≈$455
template:sportsTournamentParticipant new 40.5% new 81.0¢ Yes ≈$534.62 · No ≈$405
template:sportsTournamentParticipant new 40.5% new 81.0¢ Yes ≈$534.62 · No ≈$405
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 23.9% +16.4 pts 27.8¢ Yes ≈$632.61 · No ≈$227.7
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 18.0% +13.3 pts 26.0¢ Yes ≈$796.29 · No ≈$168.92
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsTournamentWinner

5 outcomes USDC settled 5 settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 45.5% +8.6 pts 23.4¢ Yes ≈$534.83 · No ≈$431.02
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 34.0% +14.0 pts 22.0¢ Yes ≈$623.52 · No ≈$290.67
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 20.9% +0.0 pts 41.9¢ Yes ≈$778.37 · No ≈$209.45
template:sportsTournamentParticipant 16.1% -6.4 pts 32.1¢ Yes ≈$828.53 · No ≈$160.56
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 45.1% +0.8 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$116.06 · No ≈$15.22
template:sportsContestParticipant2 27.9% -0.3 pts 0.01¢ Yes fills ≈$731.68 · No ≈$3.42
template:sportsContestDraw2 26.9% -0.8 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$315.79 · No ≈$5.5
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 67.1% -1.2 pts 0.01¢ Yes ≈$8.56 · No ≈$141.79
template:sportsContestDraw2 18.7% +0.5 pts 0.6¢ Yes ≈$587.87 · No ≈$3.98
template:sportsContestParticipant2 14.2% +0.6 pts 0.05¢ Yes ≈$555.66 · No ≈$1.29
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 89.9% +1.2 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$4.67 · No ≈$489.88
template:sportsContestDraw2 6.7% -0.9 pts 0.5¢ Yes ≈$894.29 · No ≈$3
template:sportsContestParticipant2 3.6% -0.5 pts 0.02¢ Yes ≈$929.51 · No ≈$0.08
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 53.7% +1.4 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$6.71 · No ≈$26.69
template:sportsContestDraw2 23.7% -0.7 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$449.88 · No ≈$4
template:sportsContestParticipant2 22.4% -1.4 pts 0.00¢ Yes fills ≈$572.2 · No ≈$3.06
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 87.7% +0.5 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$7.8 · No ≈$663.17
template:sportsContestDraw2 9.7% +0.3 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$852.41 · No ≈$2.05
template:sportsContestParticipant2 2.9% -0.6 pts 0.1¢ Yes ≈$963.27 · No ≈$0.32
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 37.1% -1.7 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$342.72 · No ≈$7.99
template:sportsContestParticipant2 35.7% +1.1 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$297.03 · No ≈$6.75
template:sportsContestDraw2 27.3% +0.0 pts 0.3¢ Yes ≈$469.4 · No ≈$4.89
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 79.3% -0.2 pts 0.6¢ Yes ≈$5.31 · No ≈$618.2
template:sportsContestDraw2 14.2% +0.2 pts 0.5¢ Yes ≈$729.45 · No ≈$4.98
template:sportsContestParticipant2 6.7% +0.2 pts 0.6¢ Yes ≈$869.76 · No ≈$3.2
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 67.7% +0.2 pts 0.5¢ Yes ≈$8.37 · No ≈$357.69
template:sportsContestDraw2 19.3% +0.8 pts 0.6¢ Yes ≈$604.16 · No ≈$3.71
template:sportsContestParticipant2 13.4% -0.1 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$733.68 · No ≈$2.59
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 65.8% -0.7 pts 0.02¢ Yes ≈$7.24 · No ≈$297.76
template:sportsContestDraw2 22.1% -0.4 pts 0.2¢ Yes ≈$582.75 · No ≈$5.85
template:sportsContestParticipant2 12.2% -0.3 pts 0.4¢ Yes ≈$702.68 · No ≈$4.32
None of the listed 50.0% +0.0 pts $1k — nothing walkable

BTC closing range

4 outcomes USDC settled daily · expires 2026-09-10 06:00 UTC
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
$77,326 – $80,483 new 85.0% new 29.9¢ Yes ≈$149.49 · No ≈$595.33
above $80,483 new 50.0% new 100.0¢ Yes ≈$499.99 · No ≈$499.99
below $77,326 new 14.3% new 28.5¢ Yes ≈$612.06 · No ≈$142.49
None of the listed new 50.0% new $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 46.4% new 0.3¢ Yes ≈$228 · No ≈$124.2
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 26.4% new 0.3¢ Yes ≈$538.82 · No ≈$6.04
template:sportsContestDraw2 new 26.4% new 0.3¢ Yes ≈$525.47 · No ≈$8.99
None of the listed new 50.0% new $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 43.9% new 0.3¢ Yes ≈$96.81 · No ≈$7.22
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 28.7% new 0.5¢ Yes ≈$463.5 · No ≈$6.17
template:sportsContestDraw2 new 27.7% new 0.4¢ Yes ≈$529.68 · No ≈$5.05
None of the listed new 50.0% new $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 38.3% new 0.3¢ Yes ≈$263.63 · No ≈$9.07
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 35.3% new 0.3¢ Yes ≈$329.05 · No ≈$10.99
template:sportsContestDraw2 new 26.3% new 0.4¢ Yes ≈$498.72 · No ≈$6.19
None of the listed new 50.0% new $1k — nothing walkable

template:sportsContestResult

4 outcomes USDC settled
OutcomeProbabilityi24hiSpreadiFill cost · $1kiTrade
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 51.3% new 0.5¢ Yes ≈$14.6 · No ≈$62.33
template:sportsContestDraw2 new 25.2% new 0.4¢ Yes ≈$421.37 · No ≈$2.86
template:sportsContestParticipant2 new 23.7% new 0.6¢ Yes ≈$495.81 · No ≈$4.51
None of the listed new 50.0% new $1k — nothing walkable

Delisted — the recorded exit

When an outcome settles, the venue removes it from the catalog and serves no history for it. The last probability PerpRadar recorded before removal is the closest thing to the printed result — shown here verbatim, labeled by its recording time, never restated as an official settlement.

MarketLast recordedDelistedData
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 10.5% 2026-09-10 01:28 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 90.5% 2026-09-10 01:15 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 6.0% 2026-09-10 00:57 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 19.8% 2026-09-10 00:57 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 2.0% 2026-09-10 00:44 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 99.5% 2026-09-10 00:31 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 99.5% 2026-09-10 00:31 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 99.5% 2026-09-10 00:31 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 72.4% 2026-09-10 00:31 UTC delisted
template:binaryPrice template:Yes 75.4% 2026-09-10 00:13 UTC delisted

PerpRadar has recorded this surface since 2026-07-03 10:48 UTC — probabilities every capture cycle, books on a rolling cadence. The venue serves no history once an outcome settles, so the archive above grows only by recording early.

Learn: guides to reading perp-DEX data · Questions, ideas, something broken? Message us on Telegram — it lands with the operator.